About this app
How to play El Habanero
Analyst Gautam Chhugani and team are forecasting $410 billion in yes/no exchange turnover this year, implying that if the $10 trillion estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than twentyfold increase from the 2026 tally.
The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.
If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.
About El Habanero
A lot of bigger questions remain without the CLARITY Act. The bill aimed to establish a federal framework for digital commodities and delineate the roles of the SEC and the CFTC.
Its failure also leaves unresolved disputes over prediction markets and state and tribal gaming authorities, outside a comprehensive congressional framework. Those issues took on new significance during Senate floor debate over the bill, as concerns about federal commodities oversight extended to markets typically regulated at the state or tribal level.
The latest filing is an early step in filling some of that regulatory gap for the CFTC. The agency can issue regulations under its current statutory authority, but those regulations would not necessarily be as permanent as legislation passed by Congress.
About El Habanero
It is said that all great poker players have an exit strategy, and that theory should hold for all those who bring the game to fans and players, too. Calvin Ayre has been at the personal and professional forefront of poker coverage for many years.
For so long, CalvinAyre.com has been a beacon in the poker reporting landscape but as the outgoing incumbent of this position of privilege, I haven’t been at the centre of this role for so long as to claim anywhere near all the credit.
A huge thanks for his outstanding reporting on this site should go to Lee Davy, who for many years, brought poker to life on Calvin Ayre. I personally owe a huge debt of gratitude to Lee for the efforts he made in not only making me feel so well prepared to take up the mantle when he moved on to pastures new, but in establishing the Calvin Ayre brand so well for so many years within the poker world.
