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Strip away the language of contracts, order books and event trading and Bernard Marantelli has a blunt description of what is happening inside US sports prediction markets. “Kalshi is a sportsbook that’s just not allowed to have an in-house risk team,” says the founder of White Swan Data, one of the specialist firms now making markets on prediction exchanges.
The difference is all about the risk function. A sportsbook employs traders to price bets and manage its exposure. An exchange provides an API through which firms compete to quote prices and supply liquidity.
“Here’s an API. Bernard and 88 other people can market-make all these request-for-quotes (RFQs),” Marantelli says. “Some people might come in and just do esports because they’re esports experts. Others do everything. Some focus on same-game parlays. But it’s a sportsbook.”
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Streaming is also becoming part of the product. Monk said prediction market interfaces had moved beyond their earlier trading-led presentation to incorporate streams, player propositions and combinations resembling sportsbook bet builders.
“It was still very much a trading kind of UX,” he said of Kalshi at the beginning of the year. “The actual product offering has come a long way.”
Andrew Gonzalez, founder of prediction market infrastructure startup ParlayX, believes the ability of small teams to provide liquidity is one of the sector’s defining features. “Anyone can be a market maker,” he said. “You have these two- or three-man shops.”
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Sun International remains committed to improving its SunBet product after the product produced strong H1 earnings for the wider online business.
The operator yesterday reported that Rrvenue from SunBet surged 35.5% year-on-year to R1.18 billion ($73.6 million) across H1, outpacing the 19% overall growth of South Africa’s online market during the period.
Online growth drove Sun International’s group income up 7.4% to R6.58 billion during H1 when excluding the Table Bay Hotel (TBH), which the company is running under a management agreement with IHG.
