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The 62-minute hearing featuring Kalshi and a prominent lobbyist from the American Gaming Association provided a blueprint for the state’s evaluation of prediction markets next year. Before the calendar turns to 2027, though, stakeholders will monitor races for governor, attorney general and the US Senate on election night. The results in all three Texas races will likely have a major impact on the future of prediction markets inside the state.
Convened by Texas State Senator Bryan Hughes, the hearing in the Senate Committee on State Affairs examined the relationship between federally regulated derivatives markets and state-prohibited gambling. Research from Eilers & Krejcik Gaming in April found that 43% of activity from sports event contracts came from two states, Texas and California. A separate breakout of Texas activity alone is not publicly available.
At Tuesday’s hearing, AGA Vice President Tres York testified before the committee alongside Robert DeNault, head of enforcement and legal counsel at Kalshi. The AGA, one of the nation’s most strident critics of prediction markets, argued that an event contract on the Cowboys to beat the Giants does not differ fundamentally from the same wager placed at a sportsbook.
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The move initially appeared to work. Flutter had a market capitalisation of about $36 billion when it began trading in New York in January 2024, rising to roughly $50 billion by June the following year. Flutter’s value later fell sharply as investors lowered their earnings expectations.
In the second quarter of 2026, Flutter’s US revenue fell 6% to $1.683 billion, while sportsbook revenue fell 15%. US adjusted EBITDA fell sharply, and Flutter subsequently reduced its guidance. Despite this, FanDuel retained the number-one US sportsbook position, with Flutter reporting a 39% share of US sportsbook gross gaming revenue.
Ben Robinson, managing partner at Corfai, argues that the American listing achieved what it was supposed to achieve. The problems came afterwards. “The question was which arm of the K-shaped market Flutter would end up on. We have the answer now. Capital is concentrated in a narrow band of technology names and everything else is being marked on earnings.”
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The big Powerball winner took advantage of Section 7.2 of the Illinois Lottery Law, which governs disclosure rules regarding winners’ identities.
Under Section 7.2, a winner of a prize of $250,000 or more can request to keep their name and municipality of residence confidential while completing their Illinois Lottery Winner Claim Form.
Though the winner elected to remain anonymous, they shared details on how the massive win came about.