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Analyst Gautam Chhugani and team are forecasting $410 billion in yes/no exchange turnover this year, implying that if the $10 trillion estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than twentyfold increase from the 2026 tally.
The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.
If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.
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“Obviously, in the gaming industry we don’t have a price tag on our product where you can just change the RTP (return-to-player) and your problem is solved, it doesn’t work like that. Especially not if you take responsible gaming seriously.”
Speaking of which, in Holland the casinos must have two databases, one for online players, one for land-based, and keep them very separate – except for when it comes to responsible gambling (RG). A casino can’t use its online offering to promote the land-based side to players, and vice-versa – but the data can all be used together to make sure customers are safe from harm whenever they play with the same operator, online or otherwise.
Being a state-owned monopoly is beneficial for RG purposes. You don’t have an employer or shareholders expecting a positive quarterly earnings report four times a year, and as long as the business is self-supporting it can continue to make the best choices for player health and relationships. As Petra defines it: “It’s about a healthy long-term relationship.”
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During the lawmaking process, Full House’s exclusivity was stripped in favor of welcoming any company currently licensed as a commercial casino in the US to bid on the possible license. Lawmakers also threw in a one-time $150 million fee for the concession and a mandatory investment minimum of $500 million, all but ending Full House’s interest.
“The bill changed many times. We make money in Rising Sun. We always have, not a lot of money, but we make money. We continue to make money in Rising Sun. And we will continue to do that for our shareholders, as well as for the good of the state,” Full House CEO Daniel Lee said in March.
If any county approves its local casino referendum, the county government would be required to conduct a request for proposals and submit a winning project to the IGC.
