More Like A Diamond

What is More Like A Diamond?

The Polymarket ad campaign debuted less than 48 hours before Wednesday’s NFL regular-season opener. The matchup is a rematch of last season’s Super Bowl as the Seattle Seahawks host the AFC Champion New England Patriots.

Last February in Santa Clara, the Seahawks held the Patriots scoreless through three quarters en route to a 29-13 win. That said, the defending champions are not the favourites to win the Lombardi Trophy this year. Nearly every US operator has installed the Los Angeles Rams as the overwhelming choice to capture the title.

As of 6pm ET, the Seahawks had a 62% probability on Polymarket to defeat the Patriots in Wednesday’s opener. Conversely, Polymarket traders gave the Patriots a 39% chance to pull the upset. At those odds, a $100 contract on the Pats carries a payout of $247.35.

How to play More Like A Diamond

“Publicly traded valuations are a reflection of the current interest rate environment,” Chad Beynon, lead gaming analyst for Macquarie, told iGB. “Whether it’s a long-term financial model on a growth company, you’re going to discount that back at a higher rate, or if it’s just a standard four-wall business, the cash flows in a higher interest rate environment are worth less.”

According to data from Yahoo Finance, the resort and casino sector is -41% over the last five years, and the overall gambling sector, which includes major sportsbooks and online operators, is +7%; the benchmark S&P 500 index, by comparison, is +71% during that span.

Two blockbuster developments in the casino space earlier this year seemed to indicate an increasingly bullish bet on the sector, including Fertitta Entertainment’s acquisition of Caesars Entertainment in May. The other is a subsequent takeover offer of MGM Resorts from its largest shareholder, Barry Diller’s People Inc. But a negative shift in market conditions could affect both deals.

How to play More Like A Diamond

A CEO of a prominent operator in the DRC last year told iGB the tax system largely operates on a declaration basis of how much operators report to the government.

“Operators do pay, yes, but they pay whatever suits them,” they said. “In other words, we effectively pay what benefits us. All the while, the state has no means of monitoring its regulatory policies.”

In response to these issues, earlier this year the DRC Ministry of Finance outlined plans for a new gambling monitoring platform to enhance its supervision of the sector.